Thursday, September 22, 2011

Time to stick my neck out...


I did it before. In May I said that looked like the high point for Average SFH prices was reached or I would quit blogging. Luckily it was..for now.

In June prices dipped a bit. In July they dipped a lot and in August they had a small rebound. So far May has been the high water mark.

I think May's lunatic prices will hold. Here's where my neck comes out a full foot or so.

I think September will show a significant drop again in the SFH average price. Di I have any special inside info. Not at all - only the stuff I post for you.

However once again , if Economics makes any sense, with lower sales and higher inventory- we should get drops. This time we have a back-drop of financial crisis and mayhem too, and the Government says it wont stimulate housing again the irresponsible way they did the last time.

Yes interest rates are super low. Yes the HAM buyers are still throwing money at stuff like it was free (maybe it was), but speculation is becoming passe- and we are the epitome of Speculation.

11 comments:

  1. Please note Chad- I didn't say i would quit blogging if I was wrong.

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  2. You are a brave man...but I agree the gig may finally be up...Cheers Don

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  3. Speculation indeed. Looked at a house for rent in West Van this week, and the agent me that he was looking after West Van three properties for the same HAM buyer who had purchased them the last few months for rental. He apparently had two large apartments down-town too which were already rented.

    The Agent had no idea how the buyer could put $10 Million down on these 5 properties except to say- 'he has good connections'.

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  4. Huh? Did the government say they wouldn't throw money at housing? Our government? When? Where did they say that? Any links? I'd love to have a read. I haven't been following the market as much as before... another indicator, perhaps, that the frenzy is over.

    Egghead

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  5. "Did the government say they wouldn't throw money at housing?"

    The only insight we have, as outsiders in the formulation of government policy, is that they have commented household debt levels are high and they don't want them to increase any more. If the government is going to invest in the economy by deficit spending, it is most likely it will attempt to do so without moving household debt. That is, they will try to get businesses to spend their own money or barring that produce tax incentives and outright spending programs directed at the private sector (like say new fighter jets). Either way it's more deficit for the government.

    Again, this is inference only.

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  6. Oh and BTW remember that if the government does increase spending to lower unemployment, it needs to consider that it might eventually flow through the housing sector. In my view they will be keeping an eye on household debt levels like hawks, as it were. That may mean tighter restrictions in the pipeline.

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  7. I was interested if Fish had a link. I'm not convinced your analysis of the government and what the government is thinking of doing is the same thing.

    Egghead

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  8. Well Egghead

    This is what they did earlier this year.

    http://fishyre.blogspot.com/2011_01_01_archive.html

    And as Jesse says the talk has been all about high debt levels. Flaherty, who is now lecturing the Europeans like a wise elder statesman, forgets that our personal debt levels are worse than many European countries.

    I remember when Bernanke and Greenspan used to lecture everyone. Pride comes before a fall and all that...

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  9. Larry just put out his numbers for Coquitlam. Huge drops.

    http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/09/coquitlam-real-estate-snapshot/

    MAybe you will be right Fish

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  10. One SFH sale today in West Van. Fingers crossed that this is not another false hope. Mr Flaherty please stick to worrying about Europe and forget about pumping RE here again.

    yes, Frank, maybe I will be right- stranger things have happened.

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  11. Hmm, it's getting to that point where I actually look forward to the monthly numbers.

    When things arent dropping I dont really care because I know that eventually the drops will happen, but when they start happening I get so antsy.

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